Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Polls can flop

Another classic example of polls going bust. There was a state proposal up for vote in Michigan for a constitutional amendment to ban affirmative action (a much milder form of reservation quotas in India). Several polls showed tremendous support against this proposal, upwards of 10 percentage points. Result: the proposal passed by 16 percentage points. The people told the pollsters what they wanted to hear--the politically correct thing to tell to show that you're not against blacks. But inside the booth they pulled the lever they actually wanted. 

McCain might still win next Tue. No one knows, certainly not the pollsters. Absolutely not the media.

(read first on Mickey Kaus's blog) 

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